On November 8th, I wrote an NFL mid-season review and playoff prediction based on SWOT analysis. Let’s see how I did, and then let’s see if I can accurately predict these playoffs in a similar fashion:
I guessed the following teams would make the playoffs after the first 9 weeks: Atlanta, Houston, Chicago, Baltimore, San Francisco, New York Giants, Green Bay, New England, Denver, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. I missed on the Redskins (finished 7-0), Vikings (finished 5-2), and Bengals (finished 7-1). So, I got 9-out-of-12 right midway through the season (75%.) To be honest, I am not sure if that is good or bad. Some might argue that it’s easy to predict at least 75% of playoff contenders after 8 games, and I don’t really have a basis to argue against that since it was my first time doing it. But let’s looks at each one, (including the 3 I didn’t give credit to) and see where I was right and wrong.
Atlanta Falcons
Predicted Finish: 14-2, Lose in Division Playoff
Revised Finish: 13-3, Lose in Division Playoff to Washington.
Previous Strength: They find ways to win
Revised Strength: Not much to revise really. They are still not achieving the respect of a 13-3 team, and they had a fairly easy schedule through the year. Besides crushing the Giants in week 15, it’s tough to tell if their defense will hold through.
Previous Weakness: Can’t dominate or take over a game
Revised Weakness: This was proven wrong once, at home against NYG. But the previous week, they lost decisively to Carolina on the road. It’s a good thing they play at home, but I’m still not sold on 1 blowout.
Previous Opportunity: Easy schedule.
Revised Opportunity: This no longer exists since EVERY team in the NFC could be a Superbowl contender right now. The only opportunity I see here is rest during their bye week and maybe some additional luck at home
Previous Threat: The only team they beat above .500 is Denver in week 2 at home. What happens in the playoffs?
Revised Threat: EXACTLY! The only team above .500 they beat SINCE then was NYG during a time where Eli was freefalling and the notorious NYG defense was breaking down. I just don’t see how Matt Ryan’s playoff history is going to help here against much better teams than they’ve faced all season long.
Houston Texans
Predicted Finish: 13-3, Lose in Superbowl
Revised Finish: 12-4, Lose in Divisional round to New England
Previous Strength: Skill players everywhere
Revised Strength: Still the same
Previous Weakness: Very dependent on the run
Revised Weakness: Very suspect without it…
Previous Opportunity: Control the game, balance the attack, keep turnovers low
Revised Opportunity: In their last 3 losses, they had either no rushing game or lost the turnover battle. They thrive on balance, so the opportunity remains in playing smart football and not trying to come from behind.
Previous Threat: If they get behind in a game, is Shaub going to win against a solid defense?
Revised Threat: I think this remains the same as well. If they become one-dimensional, they have less chance to win.
Chicago Bears
Predicted Finish: 12-4, Lose in Divisional Playoff
Revised Finish: 10-6, lost tie-breaker to Minnesota for wildcard spot
Previous Strength: Best defense in the NFL
Revised Strength: Still great defense, and Brandon Marshall proved he’s an amazing asset and one of the best in the league.
Previous Weakness: Offence dependent on Defense, and are 1-1 against teams over .500.
Revised Weakness: The offense was REALLY depending on the Defense to score for them or set them up with amazing field position. Combine that with a Cutler injury and it’s over. They also ended up 2-6 against teams above .500, and Cutler only missed 2 of those losses.
Previous Opportunity: Use Forte, make it simple for Cutler.
Revised Opportunity: Maybe a coaching shakeup is a good thing. Mike Tice didn’t seem to handle it for offense, and Lovie wasn’t showing much improvement.
Previous Threat: Cutler under pressure, and the in-game collapse that follows.
Revised Threat: I think this continues unless the right coach is found. This program is great, and has plenty of tools. They need to get put it all together.
Baltimore Ravens
Predicted Finish: 10-6, Lose in Divisional Playoff
Revised Finish: 10-6, Lose in Wild Card to Colts
Previous Strength: Swarming defense, good running game.
Revised Strength: Defense has weakened with injuries, and the running game has remained somewhat consistent. Is ‘somewhat’ too strong of an adjective?
Previous Weakness: Injuries, tendency to break away from the run.
Revised Weakness: Same injuries, and the passing game hasn’t helped improve the running game.
Previous Opportunity: Keep the ball in Ray Rice’s hands.
Revised Opportunity: This remains true, as Flacco hasn’t proven to take over yet. Keep it simple to have a chance.
Previous Threat: Tough remaining schedule, no room for error.
Revised Threat: It’s still not going to get easier. Overall, they are 3-3 against teams over .500, & 2 of those wins were in weeks 1 and 3 when everyone was a lot healthier on defense. I just don’t see them having enough to win against an extremely motivated Colts team.
San Francisco 49ers
Predicted Finish: 12-4, Win Superbowl
Revised Finish: 11-4-1, Win Superbowl
Previous Strength: Team cohesiveness, Defense!
Revised Strength: Colin Kaepernick is good! Plus their defense is still one of the best.
Previous Weakness: Offense can “shut down”
Revised Weakness: As good as Kaepernick is, he’s still young and hasn’t played a full season as a starter. Kind of reminds me of Vick in his return in 2009. Or is he more like Brady in 2001?
Previous Opportunity: Alex Smith still growing?
Revised Opportunity: Umm, this is awkward… but…
Previous Threat: Alex Smith still growing?
Revised Threat: Okay fine, I jinxed his career. Sorry Alex. But things happen. And this is also where I’m stuck. Is Kaepernick good enough to win in the playoffs? Or is he going to make ONE mistake that is too much for his defense to overcome? My gut thinks this defense is good enough to keep up, but time will tell.
NY Giants
Predicted Finish: 11-5, Lose in Wild Card Playoff
Revised Finish: 9-7, too little, too late
Previous Strength: Defense, ability to make plays at big moments
Revised Strength: Tough to see a silver lining here for previous champs
Previous Weakness: Random collapses against Dallas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
Revised Weakness: Not so random anymore, as they seemed to collapse pretty frequently, finishing 3-4 and a few of the losses weren’t even close.
Previous Opportunity: Defense always keeping it close, Eli’s last minute heroics
Revised Opportunity: Rest, and more rest. Still not a bad team, just a bad year.
Previous Threat: What if defenses decide to cover the deep threats in the 4th quarter?
Revised Threat: Well, defenses DID stop giving huge touchdown passes to Eli, but the NY’s Defense gave up too. They need the time to think about everywhere they need to improve.
Green Bay Packers
Predicted Finish: 11-5, Lose in Conference Championship
Revised Finish: 11-5*, Lose in Divisional Round
Previous Strength: Best QB in the game
Revised Strength: Nothing has changed, no matter what Greg Jennings sister says. He’s the best there is, except for those 51 sacks (30 more than Peyton and 24 more than Brady.)
Previous Weakness: Injuries, non-existent running game.
Revised Weakness: Not much has changed here. They’ve gotten Jennings and Matthews back, and Woodson should appear for the playoffs, but they’ve lost Bulaga and Worthy. The offensive line still needs help with protection and run blocking.
Previous Opportunity: Running game can only get better.
Revised Opportunity: And it has, but ESPN still enjoys displaying a stat that they’ve gone 40+ consecutive games without a 100 yard rusher. Yes, I get it, they don’t run that well. Loud and clear.
Previous Threat: What if people don’t return from injuries?
Revised Threat: Jennings’ resurgence and Matthews’ tenacity has given a lot of hope. Nelson and Cobb’s injuries were short lived as well. But the offensive line is still the most suspect, especially against San Francisco. And can the defense get off the field on 3rd down when it matters most?
New England Patriots
Predicted Finish: 11-5, Lose in Wild Card Playoff
Revised Finish: 12-4, Lose in Conference Championships
Previous Strength: Key offensive players starting to step up
Revised Strength: Defense has improved, Brady is Brady.
Previous Weakness: Defense doesn’t scare anyone
Revised Weakness: Were 3-3 against teams above .500, injuries to Gronkwski haven’t helped
Previous Opportunity: Steven Ridley might give Brady more options on offense
Revised Opportunity: The offense is clicking, and as long as Brady can get on the field, all should be ok.
Previous Threat: Can’t win in the playoffs with no defense
Revised Threat: As the 49ers proved, keep Brady off the field, and you can beat this team.
Denver Broncos
Predicted Finish: 12-4, Lose in Conference Championships
Revised Finish: 13-3, Lose in Superbowl
Previous Strength: Veteran leadership, balanced attack, good defense
Revised Strength: Not much has changed, aside from their schedule being easier in the second half.
Previous Weakness: 2 of 3 losses were to New England and Houston
Revised Weakness: They beat the Bengals and Ravens in the second half of the year, but it’s tough to tell if they can beat anyone stronger than that.
Previous Opportunity: Building momentum, Peyton’s familiarity with the playoffs
Revised Opportunity: Peyton’s familiarity in the playoffs, and a home schedule up high should make them tough to beat.
Previous Threat: Can Peyton make up for his declining arm strength when it counts?
Revised Threat: Aside from the arm strength, it’s just tough to tell how strong they really are without having played a serious contender in a while. If they make it to the conference championship, I think the Patriots will have an edge, but their defense & home field advantage MIGHT be enough to get to New Orleans.
Indianapolis Colts
Predicted Finish: 10-6, Lose in Wild Card Playoff
Revised Finish: 11-5, Lose in Divisional Round to Broncos
Previous Strength: Luck starting to shine, team coming together
Revised Strength: Same as before, except with even more confidence now.
Previous Weakness: Still struggling against weak teams every now and then
Revised Weakness: Lack of experience in the playoffs, a few too many mistakes by Luck.
Previous Opportunity: Momentum and locker-room faith can be a helluva force
Revised Opportunity: Keep the confidence and energy high and use it to make the little plays all over the field.
Previous Threat: Luck is still a rookie, therefore plenty of mistakes are still going to happen
Revised Threat: They can stagger, but only briefly. They have proven they can come from behind, but Baltimore won’t just hand them a victory if they falter too much.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted Finish: 10-6, Lose in Divisional Playoff
Revised Finish: 8-8, and probably happy it’s over
Previous Strength: Veterans, coaching, just enough talent to make plays on offense
Revised Strength: Still one of the best defenses out there
Previous Weakness: Injuries, lack of consistency
Revised Weakness: Injuries, Batch, Leftwich, no running game
Previous Opportunity: Overcoming a rough start, building momentum
Revised Opportunity: Do they just need some rest and some young blood on defense?
Previous Threat: Will injuries and age be too much to overcome?
Revised Threat: If the Steel Curtain is getting too old, and Big Ben too beat up, then what?
Seattle Seahawks
Predicted Finish: 9-7, Lose in Wild Card Playoff
Revised Finish: 11-5*, Lose in Wild Card Playoff to Redskins
Previous Strength: Winning at home, 12th man
Revised Strength: Russell Wilson, solid defense
Previous Weakness: Russell Wilson, and lack of road game
Revised Weakness: Wait, why did I say Russell Wilson was a weakness? Oh yeah, because when I first wrote this, they were 5-4* and Wilson’s rating was 88.8 with ghastly performances against Arizona, St Louis, and San Francisco (all on the road.) Since then, his QB rating is 115.1. They are still 3-5 on the road overall, with 2 of those wins coming in the 2nd half of the season.
Previous Opportunity: Can the defense always keep them in games?
Revised Opportunity: Their defense is still key, and Lynch should get plenty of carries.
Previous Threat: What happens when they are on the road for the playoffs with a rookie QB?
Revised Threat: Well, that’s coming true, except Wilson might be better. But what if they shut down Lynch, who has rushed for 100+ yards in the past for games? Can Russell truly carry the team all by himself?
Minnesota Vikings
Predicted Finish: Miss playoffs
Revised Finish: 10-6, Lose in Wild Card to Green Bay
Previous Strength: NA
Revised Strength: Peterson, Peterson, AP, Purple Jesus
Previous Weakness: NA
Revised Weakness: Ponder scares me still…
Previous Opportunity: NA
Revised Opportunity: Just give the ball to AP over and over and over. And once and a while let Ponder throw it to the flat on play action, but NO FURTHER than the flat.
Previous Threat: NA
Revised Threat: Green Bay might put 10 people in the box on Saturday and/or blitz Ponder on every other play. Throwing outdoors, in Lambeau, in January, isn’t the same as the dome the week before.
Cincinnati Bengals
Predicted Finish: Miss playoffs
Revised Finish: 10-6, Lose in Wild Card
Previous Strength: NA
Revised Strength: They have had a fairly easy schedule, and their defense and running game have been good.
Previous Weakness: NA
Revised Weakness: There just isn’t anything scary about them. Then again, maybe it’s the consistency about them that helps them win?
Previous Opportunity: NA
Revised Opportunity: Minimize mistakes. Stay true to the run, and don’t give up big plays to Arian Foster or Andre Johnson.
Previous Threat: NA
Revised Threat: Last year they lost at Houston 31-10. It should be closer this year, but I don’t see Marvin Lewis making a big enough change to win.
Washington Redskins
Predicted Finish: Miss playoffs
Revised Finish: 10-6, Lose in Conference Finals
Previous Strength: NA
Revised Strength: RGIII, Alfred Morris, and a whole team that rallies when RGIII when down with an injury.
Previous Weakness: NA
Revised Weakness: RGIII isn’t 100%, and their schedule wasn’t the toughest over the 7 game winning streak (retrospectively of course)
Previous Opportunity: NA
Revised Opportunity: Use RGII and Morris in tandem enough to confuse Seattle’s defense and keep them guessing. Defense needs to just play well enough and not give up anything big.
Previous Threat: NA
Revised Threat: Too many “what ifs” that come to mind, but I think that’s where at least one home game helps them tremendously to get to the next level.
*You’re damn right I’m still pissed about that Seattle/Green Bay game in week 3! Green Bay would be sitting with a bye at #2 right now if it wasn’t for Goodell being one of the worst commissioners ever. That would also mean that they probably wouldn’t face San Francisco until the conference finals IN LAMBEAU as opposed to flying to the Bay Area for a well rested SF defense waiting to rip apart Green Bay’s beat up O-Line for 4 quarters. Yes, I realize Green Bay COULD have won week 17 and secured it themselves, and yes I realize San Francisco beat Green Bay at home in week 1, but that pathetic outcome in week 3 shifted the advantage of the playoffs. Of course, just for writing this, I’ve jinxed Green Bay and they’ll lose to Minnesota, but I figure Goodell needs at least one more person speaking to how terrible he is.
To recap (and add scores):
Wild Card Weekend
Colts over Ravens, 20-17
Texans over Bengals, 28-14
Redskins over Seahawks (and not entirely out of spite), 17-14
Packers over Vikings, 34-17
Divisional Round
Broncos over Colts (Peyton vs Luck, wow), 28-17
Patriots over Texans, 38-24
Redskins over Falcons, 24-17
49ers over Packers, 31-24
Conference Championships
Broncos over Patriots (Peyton vs Brady, wowie), 33-27
49ers over Redskins, 27-21
Superbowl
49ers over Broncos, 24-21
Matt, I am in Vegas and will use this post as a reference when placing bets.
Depending on how you weighted your bets, I went 2-2 this weekend, making it likely you broke even if you bet equally on all 4 games.
Elements I didn’t account for properly in Baltimore and Washington:
1 – Rookie (Luck) on the road for his first playoff game in Baltimore and not having his Offensive Coordinator with him (prayers out to Coach Arians and family)
2 – RG3′s knee being MUCH worse than I thought, and Washington’s offense collapsing when he aggravated it
I actually went 3 for 4, because at the last minute, I couldn’t bear the thought of rooting for the Redskins, so I had a change of heart and took Seattle.
I also picked over 45 points in that game, which mitigated that win.